Democrats vow a redistricting counterpunch but are facing hurdles Republicans don’t
ABC News: Politics — 2026-05-24 09:02:00 — abcnews.com
Democrats Face Uphill Battle in Redistricting Ahead of 2026 Elections
As the 2026 elections approach, Democrats are poised to finish several seats behind Republicans in the nationwide race to redraw maps for the U.S. House. While they may have a chance to catch up in 2028, they face a series of redistricting hurdles that the GOP does not encounter. In many states, Democrats can draw partisan political lines only if they navigate constraints—some self-imposed—that limit their ability to counteract Republican strategies.
Redistricting Challenges Ahead
In states like Colorado, New Jersey, New York, and Washington, redistricting commissions are tasked with drawing boundaries that are not supposed to favor either party. This means that Democrats will need to gain voter permission to nullify these politically popular bodies and replace their balanced maps with more partisan ones. This is a stark contrast to the approach taken by Republicans, who, following a directive from Donald Trump, aggressively redrew maps in Republican-controlled states to maintain their House majority.
If Democrats misstep in their redistricting process, they risk having their new maps invalidated by the courts. This was recently demonstrated in Virginia, where the state Supreme Court invalidated voter-approved maps that would have provided Democrats with four additional winnable seats. The court ruled that the Democratic-controlled legislature did not follow the correct procedure when placing the measure on the ballot. “It’s going to be expensive, it’s going to be unpopular, and it’s going to be a challenge for them to do what they want,” said Adam Kincaid, executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust.
Democrats’ Current Standing
Despite recent setbacks in redistricting, Democrats are still favored to win control of the House this year. However, the most significant challenge they face is the conservative majority on the U.S. Supreme Court, which has weakened a key provision of the Voting Rights Act. This change has allowed Republicans to swiftly eliminate at least three majority-Black House seats in the South that Democrats currently hold.
Political strategists from both parties anticipate that Democrats will gain seats in the upcoming November elections, a trend typical when the party of an incumbent president faces voter backlash during midterm elections. For instance, during Trump’s first midterm in 2018, Democrats added 40 seats in the House. However, the outlook for a Democratic majority in 2028 appears much more challenging.
Future Implications of Redistricting
Presidential elections tend to yield closer results than midterms, and under the recent Supreme Court decision, Republicans could easily eliminate another five or more majority-minority Democratic-held districts in states where maps are already set for 2026. They are also likely to gain additional seats by redrawing maps in Indiana, Kentucky, and Kansas, where Democratic governors who have blocked Republican maps will soon reach their term limits.
The pressure is mounting for Democrats to enhance their chances of winning the House in 2028, especially as they aim to reclaim the Senate and the White House. Only then could they attempt to pass a national ban on partisan gerrymandering, which could strip Republicans of a potentially enduring advantage.
Looking Ahead to 2030
After the 2030 census, House seats will be reallocated to states experiencing the fastest population growth, primarily those controlled by Republicans. Projections indicate that Republicans could gain as many as 10 seats, largely at the expense of Democratic strongholds like California and New York. “Looking at the next census makes me all the more stressed to ban partisan gerrymandering at the federal level,” said John Bisogano, executive director of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee.
Republicans’ Legal Hurdles
While Republicans face their own legal challenges in the redistricting process, such as in Florida, where their redrawn congressional map depends on the conservative-majority state Supreme Court overturning the state’s constitutional ban on partisan gerrymandering, Democrats encounter far more obstacles. They must execute a series of complex political maneuvers to gain any advantage.
In states like Illinois and Oregon, Democrats may have opportunities to draw additional winnable seats without significant impediments. However, in Colorado, New York, and New Jersey, they could potentially achieve close to double-digit gains in House seats, but only if they successfully navigate constitutional changes.
Democratic Strategies and Voter Sentiment
Democrats are increasingly willing to abandon their previous commitment to nonpartisan redistricting in favor of more aggressive strategies to counter Republican gerrymandering. The most notable success came in California, where a ballot measure to adopt a new map to gain as many as five seats passed easily last year. Virginia’s map passed narrowly, but Democrats remain determined to implement a 10-1 map in 2028.
In Washington state, Democrats’ only chance to revise the constitution and redraw maps hinges on winning a two-thirds majority of the Legislature in November, a challenging feat. Meanwhile, Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair Devin Remiker has proposed new maps to allow Democrats to win up to six seats in a state where Republicans currently hold six of the eight House districts. “If we’ve learned anything, we’ve learned that when you know a knife fight is coming — bring a bazooka,” he said.
Democrats are optimistic that their voters will support these changes. “People in New York are pretty fired up given what they’ve seen around the country,” said U.S. Rep. Joe Morelle, a New York Democrat. However, New York voters cannot engage in the redistricting fight until next year, as the state constitution requires a statewide vote to amend it.
Conclusion
The upcoming redistricting battles are critical for both parties as they prepare for the 2026 elections and beyond. While Democrats face significant hurdles in their efforts to redraw maps, the stakes are high, and the implications of these decisions will resonate for years to come. As the political landscape continues to evolve, both parties must navigate the complexities of redistricting with an eye toward the future, especially in light of the challenges posed by the current Supreme Court and the shifting demographics of the electorate.