Dems aren’t sure whether to actually spend big to flip Texas

Democrats Face Uphill Battle to Flip Texas, Bolstered by Talarico’s Rising Popularity

It didn’t take long for Democrats’ aspirations of turning Texas blue to face significant challenges. Despite the enthusiasm surrounding Senate nominee James Talarico, national Democrats are hesitant to fully support his campaign, especially if incumbent Sen. John Cornyn emerges victorious in the GOP runoff this May. Interviews with several high-profile donor advisers and strategists reveal a stark reality: the cost of flipping Texas might be too high.

Challenges Ahead for Texas Democrats

A Democratic bundler, who opted to remain anonymous to speak freely, noted, “No one’s taking Texas seriously.” The concern stems from Cornyn’s unexpectedly strong performance against Attorney General Ken Paxton in the GOP primary. With potential backing from President Donald Trump, Cornyn’s path to victory could be smoother. Meanwhile, the possibility of facing Cornyn, a 24-year moderate incumbent, presents a daunting task in a state that hasn’t favored a Senate Democrat in nearly forty years.

Resource Allocation Dilemmas

The Democratic Party faces tough decisions regarding resource allocation. The need for massive financial investment in Texas is clear, but there are cheaper Senate battlegrounds worth considering, as noted by Alex Hoffman, a Democratic donor adviser. Democrats need a “perfect storm” to succeed in Texas, especially if Cornyn is the opponent.

Hopeful Signs and Strategic Calculations

Despite setbacks, Democrats remain hopeful. Talarico, known for his social media prowess and grassroots fundraising capabilities, scored a decisive win over Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas), giving him a head start against Republicans. Democrats see this moment as pivotal, recalling the 2014 hope sparked by President Barack Obama’s victory with a young, multi-racial coalition.

However, Trump’s influence in 2016 and 2024 eroded Democratic leads with young, diverse voters, suggesting Texas might be more out of reach than anticipated. Beto O’Rourke’s narrow loss to Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018 was the closest Democrats came in recent history, highlighting the formidable challenge ahead.

National Perspectives and Political Calculations

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has yet to list Texas among the DSCC’s top battlegrounds. Instead, states like North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, and Alaska take precedence. Yet, should Paxton secure the runoff, Schumer might reconsider. Schumer expressed optimism, stating, “Tuesday’s results in Texas are a step forward in our quest to win the Senate,” and praised Talarico as “a great candidate, and we can win.”

Republicans, meanwhile, dismiss the competitiveness of Texas. NRSC Regional Press Secretary Samantha Cantrell criticized Talarico’s progressive positions, asserting, “all things Texans will never vote for in November.”

Strategic Implications for Both Parties

Even if Democrats fail to flip Texas, they hope Talarico’s campaign will force Republicans to spend significant resources defending it, potentially impacting races in states like Ohio. Democratic donor adviser Cooper Teboe speculated, “Do we win Ohio by one [percentage point] because of this?”

Republican strategists warn of the financial strain, questioning prioritization amid battles in states like Georgia and Michigan. With millions spent on Texas, the GOP’s broader strategy faces scrutiny.

In conclusion, while Democrats face a steep uphill battle in Texas, Talarico’s campaign remains a strategic move to challenge the GOP’s financial and political stronghold in the Lone Star State. The coming months will reveal whether this gamble pays off or becomes another chapter in the elusive quest to turn Texas blue.

Source: https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/06/democrats-james-talarico-donors-spending-texas-00815690