What Will Happen To Gasoline Prices When the Iran War Ends?
FactCheck.org — 2026-05-14 16:40:00 — www.factcheck.org
Trump’s Gas Price Promises: A Closer Look at Misinformation
President Donald Trump has repeatedly assured the public that high gasoline prices will “rapidly” or “quickly” decline “as soon as” the war with Iran ends. However, energy experts caution that while prices may start to fall after the conflict is resolved, it could take many months—if not longer—before the national average price returns to pre-war levels.
Expert Opinions on Gas Prices
“For pre-war prices to show up, it could take beyond a year,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for the fuel-price tracking service GasBuddy. He emphasized that various outcomes are possible depending on the situation at the end of the conflict.
As of May 11, the average U.S. price for regular grade gasoline was $4.50 per gallon, a significant increase from $2.94 just before the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran. This spike was largely due to Iran’s response, which included blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil exports.
Contradictory Statements from Trump
Despite the expert warnings, Trump has made bold claims about the future of gas prices. On May 11, he stated, “As soon as it’s over, you’re going to see gasoline and oil drop like a rock.” Just days earlier, during a Florida event, he claimed, “it’s going to come down lower than it was,” suggesting that “pent up” oil would lead to unprecedented price drops.
At another event on the same day, he expressed confidence that prices would “snap back” quickly, stating, “I believe it will snap back very, very quickly.” These statements have been echoed by members of his administration, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who predicted that gasoline prices would “come down very quickly” after the conflict ends.
Reality Check from Energy Experts
Experts have expressed skepticism about these optimistic projections. “When the strait opens in a meaningful way, it would likely have a fairly quick impact to start pushing prices down,” De Haan noted. However, he added that it would take several weeks for oil shipments to normalize, and a return to prices below $3 per gallon in the immediate future seems unlikely.
Abhi Rajendran, a nonresident fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute, echoed these sentiments, stating, “I don’t see $3 per gallon gasoline anytime soon,” even if the conflict ends, due to ongoing supply chain damage.
Potential Impacts of Misinformation
Trump’s statements could influence public perception and behavior regarding gas prices. For instance, if consumers believe prices will drop significantly soon, they may be less inclined to adjust their spending habits or seek alternatives. This could lead to increased demand, further complicating the supply situation.
In a recent speech, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer criticized Trump’s approach, asserting that “eighteen cents isn’t a dollar fifty,” referring to the inadequate impact of a proposed federal gasoline tax holiday. Schumer argued that the best way to lower costs would be to end the war, a sentiment that contrasts sharply with Trump’s assurances.
Conclusion: The Need for Accurate Information
While Trump’s assurances about falling gas prices may resonate with many, the reality is more complex. Energy experts warn that significant price relief may take longer than the president suggests. As the conflict continues, the public must navigate these mixed messages and rely on factual information to make informed decisions about their fuel consumption and spending.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2026/05/what-will-happen-to-gasoline-prices-when-the-iran-war-ends/