Trump Makes Unsupported Claims About Drug Flows
FactCheck.org — 2026-06-15 16:40:00 — www.factcheck.org
Trump’s Claims of 97% Reduction in Drug Flow by Sea Not Supported by Federal Data
President Donald Trump has repeatedly asserted that his administration has “cut” by 97% “the flow” of illegal drugs entering the U.S. “by water, by ocean and sea.” However, available federal data do not support this claim, and drug policy experts say it is not possible to verify such a dramatic reduction.
Trump’s Claims
Trump has made the 97% reduction claim more than a dozen times since late December, including in public remarks and interviews. On May 22 in New York, he stated, “We cut the flow of fentanyl across our border by 59%, which is unheard of. And we cut the flow of fentanyl and drugs into our country by the ocean and the sea, in other words, coming in by water, by ocean and sea by 97%.” He repeated a similar claim in a May 28 Fox News interview, saying, “We have drugs down 97%. Fentanyl and various drugs down 97% on drugs coming in by water.”
No Comprehensive Data
Experts and federal data contradict Trump’s statements. There is no comprehensive data on the total amount of drugs trafficked into the U.S., including undetected shipments. Katharine Harris, a fellow in drug policy at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, explained, “We do not know the true amount of drugs coming into the country because we don’t know the amount that comes in undetected.” She emphasized that the amount of drugs “seized” is not equivalent to the total drug “flow.”
Cherry-Picked Numbers
Trump’s administration has based its claims on a selective comparison of drug seizure data. For example, officials pointed to a 98% drop in the amount of drugs seized by Customs and Border Protection’s Air and Marine Operations from July to November 2025. However, July saw an unusual spike in seizures, mostly marijuana, making the decline appear far more dramatic than the broader trend. Harris noted that “picking a different month” would have shown a much smaller decline and that it is more informative to look at trends over at least a 12-month period.
Actual Seizure Trends
Looking at a longer period, the data show an increase in drug seizures under Trump. In the first full 15 months of Trump’s second term, 547,603 pounds of drugs were seized by CBP’s Air and Marine Operations—an 81% increase from the 302,548 pounds seized in the last full 15 months under Biden. Even excluding the July 2025 spike, the amount seized under Trump was still almost 7% higher than under Biden.
If increased seizures indicate more drugs entering the country undetected—as some Republicans have argued—this trend is the opposite of what Trump claims.
Other Factors and Agencies
The U.S. Coast Guard, not CBP, is the lead federal maritime law enforcement agency for drug interdiction by sea. In fiscal year 2025, the Coast Guard seized a record of almost 510,000 pounds of cocaine in the Eastern Pacific Ocean and Caribbean—more than three times its annual average. Despite these efforts, cocaine remains widely available in the U.S., as traffickers adapt their methods.
Conclusion
Trump’s repeated claims that his administration has nearly eliminated drug smuggling by sea are not supported by federal data or drug policy experts. The data show no evidence of a 97% reduction, and in fact, more drugs were seized in his first 15 months back in office compared to the previous administration. Experts emphasize that seizure data alone cannot substantiate claims about the true flow of drugs into the country.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2026/06/trump-makes-unsupported-claims-about-drug-flows/