5 things to watch in Tuesday's Illinois primaries

Illinois Primaries: A Battle of Influence, Endorsements, and Intraparty Tensions

As the Illinois primaries unfold, a surge of political spending has underscored the stakes of both the Senate and House races. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) has invested millions into key contests, while Democratic Governor JB Pritzker faces backlash from prominent Black leaders over his endorsements. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party continues to grapple with internal generational conflicts following its 2024 setbacks.

Can AIPAC Avoid Another Fumble?

AIPAC is under the microscope in Illinois after facing criticism for inadvertently supporting a progressive candidate in New Jersey who labeled Israel’s actions in Gaza as genocide. The group is now striving to demonstrate its political prowess amidst heightened scrutiny of Israel and AIPAC itself. In the contest to replace retiring Rep. Jan Schakowsky in the 9th district, Democratic strategists warn that AIPAC’s attacks on Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss might have unwittingly paved the way for progressive contender Kat Abughazaleh, a Palestinian-American critical of Israel. AIPAC’s recent pivot to focus on Abughazaleh instead of its preferred candidate, State Sen. Laura Fine, represents a strategic shift. However, the question remains whether the change came too late to prevent another misstep.

Will JB’s Involvement Help or Hurt Him?

Governor JB Pritzker’s significant backing of Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton’s Senate campaign against Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly has caused friction, particularly with Black leaders in the state. Congressional Black Caucus Chair Yvette Clarke expressed discontent, emphasizing that a governor should not be overly involved in such races, which could be remembered unfavorably. The concern among Black Democrats revolves around the potential split of the Black vote between Kelly and Stratton, possibly aiding Krishnamoorthi. Former Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot, who supports Kelly, highlighted the dilemma many Illinoisans face: choosing between personal preference and perceived viability according to polls.

What Do All the Races Say About the Future of the Democratic Party?

The primary contests in Illinois, marked by debates over Israel and racial tensions, alongside generational divides, symbolize a crucial moment for the Democratic Party. Following losses to Republicans in 2024, the outcomes in Illinois, like those in Texas earlier, will provide insight into the party’s trajectory.

How Do the Outside Influences Fare?

Outside spending has reached unprecedented levels, with over $35 million funneled into TV ads in Illinois races. Tech interests lead the pack, with pro-AI and pro-Crypto groups contributing over $15 million. This level of expenditure on campaigns has taken many seasoned Illinois political strategists by surprise and could significantly influence policy debates in Congress regarding regulation.

Who Turns Out?

Turnout trends, particularly among Hispanic voters, will be a focal point. In previous primaries and special elections, backlash against aggressive immigration policies and economic uncertainty boosted Hispanic voter turnout. Illinois’s primaries will also gauge the impact of Israel-related disputes on voter engagement, especially in districts where support for Israel has been contentious.

While Donald Trump has not been directly implicated in these races, his administration’s policies have influenced voter sentiment and turnout dynamics, notably among Hispanic communities. The Illinois primaries, with their deep-seated intraparty conflicts and external pressures, will serve as a litmus test for broader national political patterns.

Source: https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/17/what-to-watch-illinois-primary-aipac-pritzker-00830755