We’re about to find out whether Trump is kingmaker or lame duck
Politics — 2026-05-05 03:45:00 — www.politico.com
President Donald Trump’s power as the GOP’s kingmaker faces a major test with this month’s primaries. So far, he’s on rocky footing. His revenge tour kicks off Tuesday in Indiana, as he tries to oust eight Republican state legislators who blocked his redistricting effort there. Then it moves on to Louisiana and Kentucky, where he’s backing challengers to two longtime enemies, Sen. Bill Cassidy and Rep. Thomas Massie, who he’s been itching to unseat for years. Trump has also selected his favorite candidates in the crowded GOP primaries for Alabama Senate and Georgia governor.
But his picks have struggled to dominate their fields, with most holding only narrow leads in polling and some failing to pull far ahead in fundraising. In Indiana, even a few allies of the president are tempering expectations of a full eight-lawmaker sweep. The results will reveal how effective the president’s political operation is at turning out Republicans when Trump is not on the ballot, and how motivated MAGA is to go along with his ongoing retribution campaign. It’s also a potent expression of his power ahead of the likely lame-duck phase of his presidency.
Some Republicans — even those involved in the races — say the shaky standing of Trump’s preferred candidates suggests that his ability to move his base en masse is beginning to slip. MAGA, they note, may be developing a mind of its own as the party begins to look beyond the Trump era. “He’s hit his max power and now you’re seeing the backside of that power curve,” said former GOP Rep. Adam Kinzinger, a frequent target of Trump’s wrath who retired from Congress amid intense backlash for his 2021 vote to impeach the president and a new congressional map that would have left him in a member-on-member primary. “This will be his last competitive election cycle that will have any impact on him. And I think the base is starting to think into the future.”
Trump has a long history of unseating his congressional opponents, backing primary challengers to his critics and wielding his social media platform and his official bully pulpit to create such politically hostile conditions that many of his adversaries simply retire. Republican candidates have long jockeyed — and continue to trip over themselves — for his stamp of approval, hoping not to end up on the wrong side of his anger. “The Trump endorsement is the most powerful and influential endorsement in the history of American politics,” said White House spokesperson Davis Ingle. “President Trump’s sterling record with his endorsements speaks for itself.”
Still, he’s produced a very mixed track record in contested races. Trump’s candidates have felled some of his biggest foes in GOP primaries, including former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) and other Republicans who voted to impeach the president in his first term. But he’s also suffered some high-profile losses; he failed to oust Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp and has watched several of his picks fall short in congressional races over the years, including Sen. Luther Strange in Alabama and scandal-plagued Rep. Madison Cawthorn in North Carolina.
Success will be even trickier this cycle: The May contests come as he continues an unpopular war in Iran that’s causing voters pain at the gas pump, as people sour on his economic and immigration agenda and as his approval ratings continue to sink. “The [Trump] endorsement just isn’t moving voters. It just isn’t,” said a GOP operative working on the Alabama Senate race who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “When you’ve endorsed more than 800 people in 10 years, the potency of an individual endorsement wanes.”
### How this sits against verifiable accuracy
The excerpt outlines Trump’s efforts to influence upcoming primaries, highlighting his attempts to unseat Republican legislators in Indiana and support challengers in Louisiana and Kentucky. It suggests that Trump’s endorsement power is being tested, with some candidates struggling to gain traction. The statements imply that Trump’s influence may be waning as some Republicans express concerns about his ability to mobilize his base effectively.
### Targets and tone
The excerpt shows Trump targeting Sen. Bill Cassidy and Rep. Thomas Massie, referring to them as longtime enemies. Trump has urged GOP primary voters to kick Cassidy “OUT OF OFFICE,” indicating a hostile stance towards him. Additionally, the excerpt mentions that Trump has been “itching to unseat” Massie, further illustrating his antagonistic approach towards these individuals.
In summary, the upcoming primaries will serve as a critical test of Trump’s influence within the GOP, as he faces challenges in rallying support for his chosen candidates. The results could signal a shift in the party’s dynamics as it moves beyond the Trump era.
Politics — 2026-05-05 03:45:00 — www.politico.com
Source: https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/05/trump-revenge-endorsement-may-primaries-00906086