Trump exaggerates about how much illegal immigration raised rental housing prices
PolitiFact – Rulings and Stories — 2026-07-10 16:56:00 — www.politifact.com
Trump Exaggerates Impact of Immigration on Housing Costs, Fact-Check Finds
President Donald Trump has once again sought to link rising housing costs to illegal immigration under President Joe Biden, making claims that do not align with available data. On July 8, when asked about a Federal Reserve working paper on the effects of unauthorized immigration on U.S. labor and housing, Trump asserted, “What’s happening is housing costs are going down because — and rental costs are going down — because we’re getting so many illegals out of the country. But Joe Biden raised the cost of housing by 40 and 50% — the cost of (a) rental — because they were housing illegal aliens in all of those empty units.”
Fact-Checking the Claims
Trump’s statements misrepresent the findings of the Federal Reserve paper. The research attributed just 4.3 percentage points of the 22.6% overall increase in rental housing prices from 2021 to 2024 to unauthorized immigration during Biden’s tenure. This means unauthorized immigration accounted for about 19% of the total increase, not the 40–50% rise Trump claimed.
Additionally, there is no evidence supporting Trump’s assertion that the Biden administration housed immigrants in the U.S. illegally in vacant homes. A similar claim from a Trump-aligned campaign ad was previously rated false by PolitiFact.
What the Data Actually Shows
According to the Congressional Budget Office, from 2021 to 2024, about 1.6 million immigrants per year either entered the U.S. illegally, overstayed their legal status, or were awaiting immigration court proceedings. The Federal Reserve paper used the Zillow Observed Rent Index to show that rental prices climbed 22.6% on average in metropolitan areas during this period. However, the main driver of price increases was a lack of new housing construction, not immigration.
Experts caution against blaming rising rents primarily on unauthorized immigration. Newly arrived immigrants often have low housing demand and tend to share housing with others, which further undermines Trump’s narrative.
Conclusion
Trump’s claim that Biden caused a 40–50% increase in rental costs by housing illegal immigrants in empty units is not supported by the data. While unauthorized immigration played a small role in rising rents, the effect was far less than Trump alleged, and there is no evidence of immigrants being housed in vacant homes. The claim is rated mostly false, highlighting a pattern of exaggeration and misinformation in Trump’s statements on this issue.