Census report on noncitizen voting has ties to Trump group : NPR
NPR Topics: Politics — 2026-08-19 16:27:00 — www.npr.org
Trump Repeats Baseless Claims of Widespread Noncitizen Voting, Experts Dispute Census Bureau Report
President Trump is once again amplifying unsubstantiated allegations of widespread illegal voting by non-U.S. citizens, citing a new Census Bureau report that experts say is deeply flawed in both its methodology and conclusions.
In a recent social media post, Trump claimed that the Census Bureau’s initial review of more than 128 million voter records “proves that over 24,000 Noncitizens voted illegally” in the 2020 presidential election, and asserted that this number will “explode” as the agency continues its analysis. This assertion comes despite longstanding evidence from multiple studies and audits that noncitizen voting in federal elections is extremely rare.
Dubious Report Tied to Trump-Aligned Think Tank
The report Trump referenced was not authored by career civil servants at the Census Bureau. Instead, it involved individuals affiliated with the America First Policy Institute, a think tank founded by officials from Trump’s first administration. The report itself lacks an identified author and transparency about its methods, raising concerns among former Census Bureau employees and data experts.
Election experts have sharply criticized the report. David Becker, executive director of the Center for Election Innovation & Research, called the analysis “laughable,” noting that Census data cannot reliably be matched to voter data. He also pointed out that even if the numbers were accurate, 24,000 votes out of 128 million is less than 0.02%—far too small to have affected the 2020 election outcome.
Michael Morse, a University of Pennsylvania law professor who studies voter registration, echoed these concerns, citing the lack of unique identifiers and outdated records as likely sources of error. He noted that the estimated rate of apparent noncitizen voting is “both a tiny fraction of total votes … and entirely consistent with both types of error.”
Ongoing Pattern of False Claims
Trump continues to falsely claim that the 2020 election was rigged. In the lead-up to the upcoming midterm elections, he has urged Republican lawmakers to enact sweeping new voting restrictions, using questionable data to justify these efforts.
The Census Bureau report is the latest in a series of figures released by the Trump administration that use disputed or opaque methodologies to allege noncitizen voting. Last month, the Department of Homeland Security claimed to have found 250,000 noncitizens on voter rolls in several states, but has not explained how those numbers were calculated, and state officials have questioned their accuracy.
Threat to Census Bureau’s Reputation
Former Census Bureau officials warn that the release of such reports threatens the agency’s reputation as a nonpartisan statistical body. The lack of transparency and rigor, combined with the involvement of political appointees, undermines public trust in official statistics—especially as the country approaches the 2030 census.
“It’s a confusing time for the public,” said Misty Heggeness, a former bureau economist. “If the public sees a document like this that lacks all of those really integral pieces that are generally put out with official statistics, that’s a really good sign to question the validity of the document.”
Conclusion
President Trump’s latest claims about noncitizen voting, based on a questionable Census Bureau report, are not supported by credible evidence. Election experts and former officials agree that the methodology is deeply flawed and the numbers cited are minuscule. The continued promotion of these falsehoods risks further eroding public confidence in both the electoral system and the nation’s statistical agencies.
Source: https://www.npr.org/2026/08/19/nx-s1-5938799/trump-census-bureau-noncitizen-voting