Donald Trump exaggerates 401(k) gains during his second term
PolitiFact – Rulings and Stories — 2026-06-25 13:51:00 — www.politifact.com
Trump’s Claim About 401(k) Gains Exaggerates Reality, Data Shows
During a June 23 speech at a Mack truck plant in Macungie, Pennsylvania, President Donald Trump claimed, “The typical 401(k), as you know, is up almost $30,000 in … 13 months.” Trump has repeatedly pointed to rising 401(k) retirement plan balances as evidence that Americans are becoming wealthier during his second term, making similar statements since his February State of the Union address.
Fact-Checking the $30,000 Figure
While it is true that the stock market has seen significant gains during Trump’s second term, the $30,000 increase he cited is not supported by available data. According to Fidelity Investments, which manages a large number of 401(k) plans, the average increase in 401(k) balances between December 31, 2024, and March 31, 2026, was $9,454—about one-third of the amount Trump claimed. No age group studied by Fidelity saw an average increase greater than about $16,000.
Experts note that averages can be skewed by high-balance accounts, meaning the median gain is likely even lower. Achieving a $30,000 gain over this period would have required a starting balance of at least $200,000, a figure that only about 10% to 20% of U.S. adults have in their 401(k)s.
Stock Market vs. 401(k) Growth
The S&P 500, a broad measure of the stock market, rose by about 24% from Trump’s second inauguration to his June speech. However, typical 401(k) accounts did not keep pace, rising by about 6.5% on average. This lag is partly because most 401(k)s are not invested entirely in stocks; they also include bonds and other assets with lower returns. Additionally, some of the growth in 401(k) balances comes from ongoing contributions by employees and employers, not just market gains.
Hardship Withdrawals on the Rise
The data also shows that a growing number of Americans are withdrawing money from their 401(k)s before retirement to deal with financial hardships. In 2025, about 6% of Vanguard 401(k) participants took a hardship withdrawal, up from 4.8% in 2024 and higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Conclusion: Claim Rated Mostly False
Trump’s assertion that the “typical 401(k) … is up almost $30,000” in 13 months is not supported by the data. While the stock market has performed well, the average 401(k) gain is much lower, and many Americans are not seeing the dramatic increases Trump describes. The statement contains an element of truth but omits important context, earning a rating of Mostly False.