What will Trump do next with Iran? : NPR
NPR Topics: Politics — 2026-05-23 12:49:00 — www.npr.org
Trump’s Standoff with Iran: A Cycle of Threats and Unmet Goals
President Donald Trump has staked much of his political identity on his prowess as a dealmaker capable of bending adversaries to his will. However, Iran has proven resistant to this approach, particularly following the U.S. and Israeli military strikes that began in late February. The ensuing 38-day military campaign has led to a fragile ceasefire and stalled negotiations, leaving the world on edge about Trump’s next move.
Recent Statements and Contradictions
On Monday, Trump announced he had called off a planned military strike at the request of Gulf Arab allies. He claimed that “serious negotiations are now taking place,” asserting that regional partners, including the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, believed “a deal will be made, which will be very acceptable to the United States of America.” However, even as he made this announcement, Trump instructed military commanders to remain on standby for “a full, large-scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached.” This contradiction highlights a recurring pattern in Trump’s rhetoric: a cycle of deadlines, threats, and pullbacks.
Unmet War Aims
Three of Trump’s core stated war aims—Iran abandoning its nuclear program, halting ballistic missile development, and ending support for Iran’s proxy forces in Gaza, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen—remain unmet. This lack of progress raises questions about the effectiveness of Trump’s strategy. Mohsen Rezaei, a military adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, responded to Trump’s pause by stating, “Our armed forces’ fingers are on the trigger, while diplomacy is also continuing,” indicating Iran’s readiness to respond to U.S. actions.
Impact on Global Energy Markets
Central to the ongoing impasse is the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas flows. Iran’s effective closure of this waterway, coupled with the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, has driven energy prices higher globally, directly impacting American consumers. An analysis by AAA shows that average national gas prices have surged more than 50% since the conflict began. An AP-NORC poll conducted this past week revealed that only a third of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the economy.
Expert Opinions on Diplomatic Efforts
Vali Nasr, a scholar of Iranian politics at Johns Hopkins University, noted that Iranian officials do not take Trump’s diplomatic overtures seriously. “Iran does not take him seriously when he says he wants to negotiate,” Nasr stated, emphasizing that Iranian leaders view U.S. diplomatic signals as a strategy to buy time rather than a genuine effort for peace. This skepticism is compounded by the history of U.S. and Israeli attacks against Iran during negotiations.
Future Prospects
As the standoff continues, questions arise about the potential for a prolonged frozen conflict. Nasr expressed doubt that the current impasse could hold indefinitely, stating, “The Strait of Hormuz cannot remain closed indefinitely, and the U.S. cannot maintain this blockade indefinitely.” He suggested that the situation may not last for months, possibly only a month, before a resolution or escalation occurs.
Conclusion
Despite battlefield losses, Iran has maintained its governing operations and control over the Strait of Hormuz. Questions about Iran’s long-term nuclear ambitions persist, with the Iranian government insisting on its right to develop peaceful nuclear energy. The White House maintains that its current posture has been successful, with spokesperson Olivia Wales asserting, “President Trump holds all the cards and wisely keeps all options on the table.” However, as the cycle of threats and unmet goals continues, the effectiveness of Trump’s approach remains in question, leaving both domestic and international observers anxious about the future.
Source: https://www.npr.org/2026/05/23/nx-s1-5832542/trump-iran-decision